MyDD

Just to follow up on Josh's post, this is the type of lede from the Associated Press that can serve as a real problem for a presidential campaign.

Days after he cracked that being rich in the U.S. meant earning at least $5 million a year, Republican presidential candidate John McCain acknowledged that he wasn't sure how many houses he and his wealthy wife actually own.

At a time when the Democrats are taking Chuck Schumer's advice -- that while "John McCain who wears $500 shoes, has six houses, and comes from one of the richest families in his state... It's Barack Obama who climbed up the hard way, and that's why he wants middle-class tax cuts and better schools for our kids" -- and McCain's comments about a $5 million annual salary being the cut off for being labeled "rich" are being ridiculed in strong web ads by the Democratic National Committee (this one goes as far as explicitly labeling McCain as "out of touch" -- and don't be surprised if it's not the last time you see this line of attack before November), McCain could ill afford a gaffe of this magnitude.

This is kind of a game-changing type of mistake. While it relates to the candidate's personal attributes rather than his policy positions, do not think for a second that it does not have the potential to be as damaging to McCain's candidacy as, say, Jerry Ford's statement in 1976 that Poland did not fall under the Iron Curtain was to his candidacy, or John Kerry's statement that he voted for the war funding before he voted against it was to his -- McCain's inability to recall just how many houses he owns gets to the heart of why he is unsuited to be President at this moment of time: He is fundamentally out of touch on the issue of the economy.

The only question at this point, I suppose, is whether Mike Allen recorded this interview on his trusty tape recorder or whether there is video footage of McCain flubbing awkwardly flubbing his answer.

I don't see much evidence that Barack Obama has a problem with women voters. He leads among women by more than Al Gore or John Kerry did at the same time during their own presidential campaigns. The most recent Iowa poll shows Obama leading by six overall but by 12 among Iowa women.

Among purveyors of conventional wisdom, however, there is still a perception that Obama has work to do among women voters, and particularly the women who preferred Hillary Clinton in the primaries.

The Obama campaign has been scheduling women's outreach events to address this issue. Today Governor Kathleen Sebelius is campaigning around central Iowa, and one of her appearances is a lunch in Des Moines specifically geared toward women.

Last Friday I attended a different women's event featuring Dana Singiser. She served as Director of Women's Outreach for Clinton's presidential campaign before joining the Obama campaign as Senior Adviser for the Women's Vote.

Singiser wrote the Obama campaign memo on John McCain's "woman problem," released earlier this week.

Join me after the jump for more.

The Obama campaign is pitching these events as discussions of "economic security" rather than "women's issues." The media advisory before Singiser arrived in Iowa noted, "Singiser will discuss Senator Obama's plan to provide economic security for America's working women." Similarly, the statement announcing Sebelius's schedule in Iowa states, "Governor Sebelius to speak at a women's brown bag lunch about pay equity and Senator Obama's plan to strengthen economic security for America's women."

The Obama campaign wisely scheduled Singiser to speak in areas where Hillary did well in the Iowa caucuses. On August 14, she headlined events in Sioux City (Woodbury County) and Council Bluffs (Pottawattamie County), and the next day she spoke at a women's lunch in Boone (Boone County). Clinton won all of those counties, and Obama finished third in Boone and Pottawattamie.

I saw Singiser in the Des Moines suburbs just before she headed to Boone for lunch. She spoke in the same backyard where Michelle Obama addressed Polk County women Democrats a year ago.

A show of hands revealed that about half of the 30 to 35 women attending had caucused for Obama, and half had caucused for a different candidate. I recognized two other volunteers for John Edwards and three women I know who were precinct captains for Hillary.

A social worker and well-known Democratic activist in Polk County introduced Singiser. She had been very active in the Clinton campaign and explained that she was now volunteering for Obama because we can't afford another four years of George Bush, and because "When women vote, Democrats win."

Singiser began by talking about her transition from working for Hillary for five years (on her Senate staff before joining the presidential campaign). If you're wondering how she could switch to Obama, she joked, you're not alone, because her mother asked the very same question.

She explained that the same reasons she supported Hillary are why she's supporting Obama. Going over a few of the things Hillary stood for, Singiser added, "I trust Senator Obama to fight these same fights for me as well." She paraphrased Obama's comments to some 2,000 Clinton supporters in New York after the primaries. According to Singiser, Obama told that gathering what Hillary's candidacy had meant to his own daughters, who would never have to wonder whether a woman could become president. He also noted that the primaries incited passion, which is something to celebrate even if that passion is not automatically transferable.

Singiser mentioned former Republican Congressman Jim Leach's recent endorsement of Obama as proof that the Democratic nominee can bring together people of different partisan backgrounds.

She then catalogued the "stark differences" between Obama and John McCain on economic policy, Social Security, retirement savings, and equal pay for women. After telling the story of Lilly Ledbetter and the Supreme Court's horrible ruling denying her legal redress for discrimination, Singiser noted that McCain opposed the Lilly Ledbetter act in the Senate.

She emphasized that the Supreme Court is not just important for Roe v Wade, but also for many other things affecting women. (Note: that was the only glancing reference to reproductive rights during this event.)

Singiser then contrasted Obama's health care plan with McCain's, which won't make a dent in the number of Americans lacking health insurance. She wrapped up by saying that Barack Obama's positions on so many of the issues important to her are shaped by the strong women in his life, like his wife, mother and grandmother. With only 80 days left before the election, there's a lot of work to do, and four more years of a Bush administration would be devastating for women.

Singiser then took questions for about 15 minutes. Most of the questions were about Obama's policies (immigration, foreign affairs, climate change). I asked her why Clinton supporters should volunteer for Obama, given the outpouring of hatred toward Hillary during the primaries. She deflected this with an answer about rampant sexism in the media, exemplified by commentators like Chris Matthews.

I followed up to ask about the way the Obama campaign frequently put the most negative interpretation possible on things Bill and Hillary said during the primaries. Why should a Clinton supporter now volunteer for Obama rather than for one of our down-ticket Democratic candidates?

Singiser downplayed the significance of the hardball politics during the primaries (there was "not much that happened during the primary season that I found really distasteful") and said Clinton and Obama had incredibly substantive debates over the issues. She added that if we don't elect Senator Obama, there won't be a friendly environment for our Democratic Congress to work in.

After a few more questions about Obama's policies, Singiser asked us all to keep in mind the power of women's friendships and social connections. We may get news from the media, but we count on our girlfriends to help us make really important decisions, such as which doctor to choose for our children.

She urged everyone present to talk to their friends, relatives and neighbors about why they are supporting Obama for president, because those contacts will be more important than anything phone-bankers and canvassers can say to voters.

All in all, I thought Singiser's presentation, like the memo she wrote on John McCain's "woman problem," made an effective case for Obama as the superior candidate for American women.

I am biased because she hit many points I recommend that Obama volunteers use when speaking to former Clinton supporters. She acknowledged that enthusiastic Clinton supporters may have trouble transferring that passion to Obama, she spelled out why Obama is so much better than McCain, and she pointed out that Hillary accomplished something for women by running, even though she did not win.

Singiser's longstanding ties to Clinton made her a better messenger on all of these points than a someone who had supported Obama all along could be. I don't know whether she converted any of the women present from reluctant Obama voters into Obama donors or volunteers, but she did an excellent job trying. I would recommend that the campaign keep putting her in front of women audiences around the country.

Two people you wouldn't expect, David Gergen and Nate Silver, making the late case for Clinton as the game-changer Obama needs (Gergen also mentions Gore). They are both right but, what Obama has been personally told by Tom Daschle is to pick someone whom is an ally, someone whom he already trusts, on his side from the get-go - and not have to build it with the VP choice going forward. No offense to David & Nate, but I think Obama's listening to Tom on his VP choice.

Other than Clinton or Gore, there is one other game-changer out there: John Kerry. I know that will raise the ire of many among us, but not myself. If JK is picked, I'll delve more into it, but suffice to point to a HuffPost on the topic by M.S. Bellows, Jr. and Mayhill Fowler.

Kerry's a better choice than Tom Daschle, and a better choice than Biden, Kaine, or Bayh. OK, I've convinced myself, and now officially abandon Daschle with my VP prediction moving to Kerry. Look, if Obama's not going to choose Clinton (all signs point toward that being the case), and Gore is unavailable, then given the late date, it seems likely to be someone that's very well known and ready to go, which is a description of very few Democrats, one of which is Kerry.

I'm not sure what McCain's definition of rich is, but in my book you instantly qualify if you can't remember how many #&^#@%* houses you own:

Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) said in an interview Wednesday that he was uncertain how many houses he and his wife, Cindy, own.

"I think - I'll have my staff get to you," McCain told us in Las Cruces, N.M. "It's condominiums where - I'll have them get to you."

The correct answer is at least four, located in Arizona, California and Virginia, according to his staff. Newsweek estimated this summer that the couple owns at least seven properties.

I suppose in our "nation of whiners," it's uncouth to give an exact number.

Alternately, perhaps McCain can't remember because they're all owned by Cindy.

Ealier Jerome mentioned Obama's lack-of-blog-outreach problem, and I wanted to add a little color to the discussion of why such outreach is crucial.

As noted, Obama's team has really nailed down the field/finance side of what internet tools and strategy can do. Volunteers are empowered to knock on more doors. Fundraising goals got scaled up. All the quantifiable metrics of a traditional campaign have improved.

But as an example of the other half of what the internet can do, roughly "communications/policy/research" in campaign shorthand, look back at the fight a few years ago to save Social Security.

In order to sell private accounts as an attractive policy solution, George Bush and the Republican machine first needed to convince the American public that Social Security had a huge problem that needed fixing. So they started telling the public that Social Security was in crisis and insolvent. If we didn't do something now, they told us, we'd all be eating cat food by Christmas. And they were looking to raise $100 million to fund the effort (click that link and check out the post's author).

At first, Bush's scheme started to catch on - traditional media outlets like the Washington Post, and even some Democrats, started internalizing and repeating the talking point that something was wrong with Social Security. The situation was dire: if Republicans succeeded in that first crucial step - convincing Americans that Social Security was broken - they would have an open door to introduce a convenient privitization "solution."

But the Democrats drew a line in the sand. In his book "The Good Fight," Harry Reid talks about the various pieces needed to save Social Security: pushes for intra-party discipline, outreach to allies, and a country-wide tour touting the benefits of the program.

Sites like talkingpointsmemo.com and MyDD led the charge to beat back the lies about Social Security. BlogPac's "There Is No Crisis" was born. When traditional media outlets adapted the right-wing talking points about insolvency, blogs went after them to speak objectively and give the facts. Democratic surrogates took to the airwaves and reminded Americans of Social Security's history and its solvent economics. And when certain Democrats wavered on privitization, Air America hosts like Sam Seder and Al Franken encouraged listeners to call their Congressmen and push for a commitment against the scheme. At that moment, we were firing on all cylinders, together, as a movement.

It worked. The Republican plan to convince Americans that Social Security was a problem in need a privitization failed. The biggest Republican legislative priority had lost, but only when Democratic insiders and outsiders worked together. If elected Democrats and their allies, both online and off, share a strategy and a message, we can win.

So how might the lessons of that fight apply to John McCain and this election? How could progressive allies help bat down phony conventional wisdom?

Update [2008-8-21 5:57:58 by Josh Orton]: As pointed out, I was remiss in shorthanding the huge work our allies at Americans United and organized labor (outside groups?) did to mobilize people and help with pushback during the Social Security fight. Blogs and other online allies were not the only players. Certainly adds to the notion of "all cylinders."

What's up tonight?

Lots of new national polls today, suffice to say that you can find them all on RCP or Pollster.  RCP has Obama up by 1.2% and Pollster has Obama up by 1.6% today in their poll of polls average, so about 45 to 43.5 is where we are at right now.

Now we get to the next phase, with VP announcements and conventions all jam-packed into the next 15 days. I am not counting on seeing a large bounce from the current margin by either candidate. But, if either candidate gets a bounce above 4% from their going-in margin, that would be significant. 4% being the average bounce in the past three elections for both sides. So, Obama's average going above 49% or McCain above 47.5% and we have a candidate breaking out of the current range.

Gallup looks at all the bounces for recent conventions:

A fairly predictable range for the Republicans, but one all over the map for Democrats.

H/t to HellOfaSandwich in Breaking Blue for the news that a new Insider Advantage poll has Road To 60 Democratic challenger Kay Hagan now tied with do-nothing incumbent Senator Elizabeth Dole (R-NC) at just under 40% each. The fact that Other and Undecideds add up to a full 20% speaks volumes about North Carolinians' discontent with Dole as their senator. An incumbent who can't even get 40% is a huge problem.

I do wonder whether the poll may have oversampled Democrats though, since the poll lists an equal number of respondents who identify as Democrats as identify as Republicans but this is a great boost to Hagan who'd seen Dole retake a fairly solid lead in some polls (Pollster's trend estimate has Dole up by 8%.) While we'll look for subsequent polls to confirm whether this new tightening is real, it does look like the new air offensive by the DSCC, MoveOn and Hagan herself may be paying some dividends.

More on the poll from Swing State Project:

Bonus finding: McCain leads Obama by 45-43 in North Carolina. Hagan currently outperforms Obama among white voters (who break 54-33 for McCain, and 46-34 for Dole), but lags Obama's performance among African-Americans (who favor Obama by 75-17, but Hagan only by 61-24). If Hagan can cut down on cross-over voting among black voters and make a steady gain among whites, she could be in a good position for an upset by election day.

You can help Kay Hagan out over at our Road To 60 ActBlue page.

Sad.

Tubbs Jones, 58, died at 6:12 p.m. after suffering a brain hemorrhage caused by an aneurysm that burst and left her with limited brain function, spokeswoman Eileen Sheil said

"Throughout the course of the day and into this evening, Congresswoman Tubbs Jones' medical condition declined," Sheil said in a statement from the clinic and Tubbs Jones' family.

The liberal Democrat, first elected in 1998, suffered the hemorrhage while driving her car in Cleveland Heights Tuesday night, said Dr. Gus Kious, president of Huron Hospital in East Cleveland.

The Obama campaign today held a conference call going after McCain for being "reckless." Greg Sargent has it over at TPM:

In an apparent effort to regain the offensive, the Obama campaign launched a broad attack on McCain today, portraying him as reckless on foreign policy, a hot-head who's too willing to use force and not willing enough to apprise himself of facts on the ground before urging military action.

On a conference call with reporters just now, senior Obama foreign policy adviser Susan Rice argued that there is "a pattern here of recklessness" when it comes to McCain's approach to various national security issues. She pointed out that McCain reacted too quickly with "aggressive and bellicose" rhetoric on the Russia-Georgia crisis, and contrasted that with Obama's measured response to the dust-up.

"There's something to be said for letting facts drive judgment," Rice said, also referring to McCain's desire to target Iraq right after 9/11.

Also on the call, Richard Clarke apparently joined the chorus calling him "reckless," "trigger-happy" and "discredited."

TPM's David Kurtz wonders whether this meme will be effective "in a nation where we like our action heroes to shoot first and ask questions later." Fair question but what Kurtz doesn't take into account is the message below the message: McCain's age.

As McCain's fellow POW, Phillip Butler, wrote in an editorial:

I can verify that John has an infamous reputation for being a hot head. He has a quick and explosive temper that many have experienced first hand. Folks, quite honestly that is not the finger I want next to that red button.

That's what this is about. As I wrote early in July, McCain's age should be on the table. Chris Bowers agrees:

Attack McCain's age. This might seem more dangerous, and I have cautioned against it before. However, it would seem foolish to avoid it at this point, because all of the clever attacks are being directed at Obama. We need to turn the tables, and this would help out quite a bit. For starters, voters want "change" in this election, and old age is an antithesis of change. Second, there is already a well-established national narrative about McCain's age, so it would reinforce existing anti-McCain narratives. Third, if the attack was done correctly, there would still be deniability that McCain's age was even being attacked. It could turn McCain into an angry, whiny, too sensitive candidate, which in turn makes him look old and weak. The narrative can thus reinforce itself even if McCain fights back.

Seems to me that's what we're looking at with this "reckless" meme.

Update [2008-8-20 19:57:4 by Todd Beeton]:GWU Battleground 2008 poll finds that 27% of respondents are "not at all comfortable" with electing a 72 year old president; only 4% said the same thing about electing an African-American.

Wow, Clinton sure does have a packed schedule in Florida on Thursday (see it in the extended entry) on behalf of Obama. Makes Maureen Dowd look stupid.

There was a big Bayh boon earlier today that got shot down.

Biden took a successful dump.

Dana Goldstein revels with anticipation in watching the furitive reactions to a Sebelius nod. How unity of Dana.

Late last night, did I really predict that Daschle would be the VP?

Obama is in VA today stumping with Warner, and tomorrow, he's doing a town hall event with Kaine, with reports that Obama is spending the night in Richmond.

The good thing is that its now less than 48 hours till you will know.

Update [2008-8-20 19:1:36 by Jerome Armstrong]: I was looking at the map yesterday, thinking the same tour thing as what Nate blogged, but I recall reading somewhere about Obama being in WI and E. IA after IL as well...

UPDATED HILLARY CLINTON SCHEDULE: AUGUST 21, 2008

Hillary Clinton will campaign for Senator Barack Obama in Florida's Orange County, Palm Beach County, and Broward County on Thursday, August 21.

In Orange County, Hillary Clinton will meet with officials from the Sheet Metal Workers International Association. Media may cover this event, but it is not open to the public.

In the afternoon, Hillary will attend a rally in Palm Beach County focused on why Barack Obama is the only choice for voters who care about issues important to women in this election.

Later Thursday, Senator Clinton will host an event with seniors in Broward County.

Both South Florida events are free and open to the public, but space is limited. Tickets will be available on a first-come, first-serve basis.

Thursday, August 21

Lake Buena Vista, FL à Boca Raton, FL à Tamarac, FL

Doors Open: 9:00 a.m. ET

Program Begins: 10:00 a.m. ET

Hillary Clinton Addresses Sheet Metal Workers

Disney Contemporary Resort

Fantasia B

4600 North World Dr.

Lake Buena Vista, FL

**All media must RSVP to Adora Andy, aandy@barackobama.com by today at 5:00 PM. For logistical and planning purposes only: Charla Bailey, 501-952-6230,

tbailey@sprint.blackberry.net. *

* Equipment must be dropped at the site by 8:30 a.m.; media will not have access to their equipment from

8:30 a.m. -9 a.m. . Live trucks MUST be parked and in place by 8:30 a.m. *

Pahokee Campaign for Change Office - 279 E Main St, Pahokee (Grand Opening Tonight

at 5 PM)

* West Palm Beach Campaign for Change Office - 2790 N Military Trail, Ste 6, West Palm

Beach (Grand Opening Tonight at 5 PM)

* Southern Palm Beach Co. Dem. Party Office - 6634 W Atlantic Ave, Delray Beach

FAU Student Union - 777 Glades Rd, Boca Raton

* Wexler for Congress Office - 2500 N Military Trail, Ste 251, Boca Raton

Doors Open: 3:00 p.m. ET

Program Begins: 4:00 p.m. ET

Hillary Clinton Attends Broward County Event for Senator Barack Obama

Palace Theatre for the Performing Arts - Kings Point

7600 North Nob Hill Road

Tamarac, Florida 33321

**All media must RSVP to Shira Kramer, skramer@floridaforchange.com by Today at 5:00 PM. For logistical and planning purposes only: Aimee Dewing, 818.216.2639 or aedewing@yahoo.com *

*Equipment must be dropped at the site by 2:00 p.m; media will not have access to their equipment from 2:00 PM-3:00 p.m. Live trucks MUST be parked and in place by 2:00 p.m.*

Margate Campaign for Change Office - 6221 Margate Blvd, Margate, FL

* For Kings Point Residents Only***   Kings Point Clubhouse - 7600 N. Nob Hill Road, Tamarac, FL

Democratic Ohio Congresswoman Stephanie Tubbs Jones remains in critical condition after suffering a brain aneurysm last night. Here's the WaPo's updated report:

Tubbs Jones' office has released a statement saying that she suffered an aneurysm while driving last night. "At the present time Rep. Tubbs Jones condition has stabilized and she is receiving the best care available," the statement says. Local news reports say she remains unconscious.

Tubbs Jones, 58, is the first black woman to represent Ohio in Congress. She was a strong supporter of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) during the Democratic presidential primary but later switched to back Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.). Like her fellow Democratic members of Congress, she is scheduled to be a superdelegate at the Democratic National Convention in Denver.

Our thoughts are with her and her family. We'll update as more information becomes available.

No shock here, but it looks like it's official as The AP is reporting that Joe Lieberman will speak at the Republican convention.

A Republican official tells The Associated Press that Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman will be speaking at the Republican National Convention.

The GOP official said Wednesday that Lieberman would deliver a speech as Republicans gathered in St. Paul to nominate John McCain for president. The official requested anonymity because he wasn't authorized to make an announcement.

The timing of the revelation is interesting as it coincides with Andrea Mitchell's reporting that Lieberman is being seriously considered as a VP choice by John McCain, so much so that the campaign is asking states whether it would be a problem to put someone who is not a Republican on the GOP presidential ticket. Chuck Todd broke down McCain's thinking last night on Countdown:

If he believes it's 3rd and 4 and all he needs is 4 yards to get that touchdown and win this election, he's going to pick Tim Pawlenty out of Minnesota. If he thinks it's 3rd and 11 and he needs to throw the long ball a little bit, and he's gotta take a risk, he's gonna do Joe Lieberman...Lieberman's the riskiest choice but there may be part of McCain who believes this is the only way I can get over 50. It's not about keeping it close it's about winning.

As the election stands right now, McCain certainly seems to be more in Pawlenty territory than in Lieberman territory, but whether or not he's on the ticket, Lieberman's mere presence at the convention should serve as the last straw for senate Democrats on the question of whether he should be removed from the caucus and hence from his committee chairmanship. Something tells me though that the only thing that will remove Lieberman from that chairmanship will be his resignation from the senate to take a cabinet position in a McCain administration, which would mean that -- and correct me if I'm wrong but my understanding is that since CT has a Republican governor, Lieberman would be replaced by a Republican senator. Which means Lieberman would get the last laugh.

Big week in the diaries, and perfectly timed. There will be no rescue Saturday (travel day), so you'll have to chew on these until next week, when the rescue returns "live from Denver," so to speak.  Warm up your best convention stories, eh?  But for now, just sit back and enjoy...

• Full House Ratings: Will the DCCC Put the Third-Tier in Play? (LeftistAddiction)
• Marc Abanto is looking for real economic stimulus in The Washington Post Gets It All Wrong.
• Shulman for Congress brings us satire: Texas Oilmen for Scott Garrett (Video).
• SevenStrings has a message for Musharraf: Goodbye General, You will not be missed!
• Jailbirds for JohnnyMac. (andrewalker08)
• Are we hiring speculators to fight the speculators?  Find out in johnny venom's Manufacturing Monday: Price Fixing, the Big Grain Crash of '08 and Speculators for Hire?
• Forbidden asks, are we becoming A Bankrupt Nation?
• Downsizing Newspapers and Pretending to Improve Quality. (Brasch)
• Defining true progressives with California Nurses Shum and Please Support Healthcare Hero Debbie Cook (CA-46).
• David Model is Evaluating the Bush Presidency: Economy F-.
• "How dumb does he think we are?", asks proseandpromise in Just Speaking for the Common Man...

So much for the notion that Senate Republicans genuinely had a shot at putting the Democrats on the defensive anywhere in the country this cycle. Via Breaking Blue comes news of yet another survey out of South Dakota showing Democratic incumbent Tim Johnson up by a wide margin over his underwhelming GOP challenger. And earlier this week, Rasmussen Reports released new numbers out of Louisiana calling to question the Republicans' shot in Louisiana.

Senator Mary Landrieu, once viewed as the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent this election year, has opened a significant lead over Republican challenger John Kennedy in her bid for re-election.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state shows the Louisiana Democrat attracts 53% of the vote while the Republican hopeful earns just 37% support. A month ago, Landrieu was leading Kennedy by only five percentage points, 49% to 44%.

When leaners are pushed, Mary Landrieu's lead over John N. Kennedy grows to 17 points, 56 percent to 39 percent -- not exactly the range of an endangered incumbent. Louisiana is still a tough state for the Democrats to prevail in, both because of the long term trends in the region away from the Democrats towards the Republicans and because of the demographic shifts in the state in the wake of Hurricane Katrina. However, the Democratic Party -- and this includes the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the Democratic National Committee, the state party, activists on the ground -- have been working overtime in recent months to identify voters across the state, particularly those that moved from New Orleans to Baton Rouge or elsewhere, an effort which has greatly increased the party's chances in the fall. Tack on the fact that the DSCC and the Landrieu campaign have been pummeling Kennedy in paid media, and you can see why this race appears to be moving back towards the Democrats.

And with the Democrats playing less and less defense between now and November, and the Republicans going on the defensive in an increasingly large number of states (who'da thunk it that Georgia and even Oklahoma would be tightening up at this juncture), the Democrats' shot at 60 seats in the Senate is becoming ever more real.

A couple of profiles on the Obama operation.

The first, written by Dana Goldstein and Ezra Klein is one of the first to really get at the 'meat & potatoes' of what made it all click for Obama to win the nomination. Basically, Obama has terrific skills himself, but the inheritance of Daschle's DC team (which had already been primed for an '04 race), and the rise of Dean's 50-State Strategy of grassroots and netroots organizing, laid the table for the newcomer to go to the front of the pack. They have excelled at every stage of the campaign, except closing the deal.

The second, on the WaPost, by Jose Antonio Vargas, profiles the Obama web team. It profiles the operation that Joe Rospars has built around YouTube, Social Networking, and Text-Messaging. A nice piece of work in gathering up the most prominent pieces of strategy that the Obama campaign is executing in their online strategy. It doesn't get into their fundraising efforts, their online advertising, or their one-to-one recruitment, but instead focuses on the new media tactics.

Rospars has no peers when it comes to knowing how to write an effective fundraising email. He's done a terrific job at the things set out in the profile and more, but for the life of me, I cannot figure out why he hasn't pursued a blog outreach strategy to date. I'm not talking about a constituency relationship or blogads, but a strategic message one. One that recognizes the blogs as being more powerful in concert with what the campaign is trying to do in opposition to McCain, and coordinating the execution of that strategic message. I'm sure that Josh Orton can speak more to the fault here, so hopefully he'll chime in somewhere with his commentary.

This isn't a ground-breaking idea I'm talking about, but a strategy that's been executed successfully many times over in winning contests over the past few years. Joe was a blogger with Ezra and Nico Pitney at 'Not Genius' back in 2002-03, and then with the Dean campaign, so its not like he doesn't get it. Even John McCain executes on the strategy. Joe ought to do some outreach himself to Peter Daou, who was in a similar situation in '04 with Kerry's campaign. Kerry had won the primary without any help at all from the blogs, and it wasn't until after the swiftboating explosion in August that the Kerry campaign realized they had a problem with controlling the message via the blogosphere. It was probably too late for Peter to do much, but he certainly dived in and worked well with the blogosphere in those last few months to develop an opposition message strategy against Bush.

Now, of course, a number of things have changed, including two big things, which the Obama campaign has recognized. First, blogs have went mainstream, all the traditional media outlets have bloggers and they are 24/7 bloggers with access. They've effectively become the online outreach vehicles for the Obama campaign message push-- the Marc Ambinder, Ben Smith, and Jake Tapper world. Second, there's a world of social networking sites that have huge numbers of available for finding voters and for organizing supporters, and the Obama campaign has leveraged those like none other. But neither have replaced the partisan blogosphere, which has grown about 10X since 2004 in terms of bloggers and readership.

And without the outreach, partisan Democratic bloggers are left on their own to pursue a decentralized strategy which has largely wandered in the desert looking for an attack angle on McCain. Bloggers complain about there not being a consistent message from Obama against McCain because nothing is being coordinated from within the campaign for outreach purposes.

The Democrats have earned electoral votes from Nebraska once in the last 70 years. Could this be the year to change that trend?

I have noted the possibility before. In short, Nebraska is one of two states that allows its electoral votes to be split up according to the winner of of individual congressional districts, and at the least the anecdotal evidence to this point has suggested that Barack Obama has a chance at making a play for one or even two of the state's five electoral votes. Now, polling out of one of those two congressional districts underscores this reality of this possibility.

According to a new survey from Democratic pollster Anzalone Liszt out of Nebraska's second congressional district (7/27-8/2, likely voters), Obama is down just four points -- 46 percent to 42 percent -- behind John McCain. For reference, George W. Bush pulled in somewhere in the neighborhood of 60 percent of the vote in NE-2 back in 2004, so McCain is significantly underperforming in the Omaha-based district. Considering that campaigns often advertise in the Omaha media market in order to reach into Western Iowa, which is in play on the presidential level this year, we may just need to keep an eye on Nebraska for the first time in a long time.

Well this is just great news. Keith over at DKos:

Rachel Gets Her Own MSNBC Show
by Keith Olbermann
Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 02:05:19 PM PDT

Happy Now?
The network will be formally announcing this tomorrow, but I am pleased to inform you in this fully authorized leak, that as of Monday, September 8, our mutual friend Ms. Maddow will become host of her own show, on MSNBC, at 9 PM Eastern Time.

In the last four years, not everything in progressive media has gone well. Air America continues to die a slow death by dumping progressive talent and replacing it with milquetoast offerings. The strong netroots-establishment message coordination from the days of the Social Security fight doesn't exist during this election cycle at the Presidential level.

However, the rise of Keith Olbermann and now Rachel Maddow are true bright spots. Rachel is one of the smartest people I know, a great broadcaster, and an all-around cool person. So she'll certainly bring light to important stories otherwise ignored by everyone else in cable news. But Rachel will also draw an audience not necessarily predisposed to liberalism. With Rachel on the air, viewers will get the opportunity to watch real news instead of bluster - and I bet a sizable number will jump at the chance.

(Rachel says hello during a photo shoot at Air America in early 2005)

Congrats Rachel!

Today was primary day in Washington State. Polls closed at 8pm PDT and voters went to the polls to vote in a wacky primary that narrowed the fields of all statewide elections down to the two top vote getters for the November general. So what that means is that we're going to see mini-general proxy election results in both WA-08 between Rep. Dave Reichert and Darcy Burner and in the gubernatorial race between sitting Democratic Governor Christine Gregoire and Republican Dino Rossi.

If you haven't been following Matt Stoller's on the ground coverage over at Open Left you should. Tonight, he's liveblogging results.

You can find them streaming at the WA Secretary of State website HERE.

So far, as of 8:42pm, after Reichert's home county of Pierce County reported, Reichert is ahead of Darcy by just 3 points.

Dave Reichert 47.27
Darcy Burner 44.27

Notably, Reichert can't break 50%, and only barely did so in his home county. The sitting congressman in a low turnout election where the Republicans are the ones motivated to GOTV to avenge Gregoire's narrow win over Rossi can't break 50%. This I think speaks to the enthusiasm gap that Darcy has over Reichert, her excellent GOTV program as well as the fact that she's the only one on the air in the district.

But the numbers can still move as absentee ballots, of which there are many in Washington State, still have yet to be counted. I'll update as results continue to come in.

Update [2008-8-20 0:8:26 by Todd Beeton]:One thing that seems to bode well for Darcy: while the candidates are not listed by party affiliation, they are listed by what party they "prefer" and so far tonight, the "prefers Democratic Party" candidates have a slight majority with 50.03%.

I had to make a prediction, so there it is now.

We know Obama likes Daschle, we know Daschle was vetted, and we know he has a speaker slot on Wed. We even know he's floated as a potential CoS in the WH. It makes sense too, of the whole VP process we've been watching unfold for Obama.

What do you think of an Obama/Daschle ticket?

What Daschle has said this week about the VP slot:Former South Dakota Sen. Tom Daschle, a close Obama adviser, said Monday he had given the campaign personal information needed to examine the background of potential vice presidential nominees but was confident he wouldn't be selected. "I did give ... documents a long time ago, but these matters have been resolved for a long time now as far as I'm concerned," Daschle told The Associated Press in an interview.

Daschle said, “It’s clear that there are certain candidates who would improve the chances” of the campaign in certain states. But, he added, that he’s advised Obama to make his decision primarily on two factors. “Pick somebody first that can take your job if you’re not here,” Daschle said. “And, second, somebody for whom you have good personal chemistry because you’re going to work together for the next eight years so you might as well like it.”

Update [2008-8-19 23:55:14 by Jerome Armstrong]: I missed this at the end of last week, but Markos also is picking Daschle. He points back to a Trapper John prediction of it on July 30th. Now, Trapper John couldn't have been more wrong, given the last three weeks of McCain gains, in his summation of where Obama's candidacy stands against McCain, but his logic for why Daschle is still sound.